Luck

[Grim]

Somewhat related.

Why crossing your fingers works … if you're lucky

As someone who strives – sanctimoniously – to be right, I'm a masochistic fan of research showing that people who are wrong have better lives than I do. This is why I particularly enjoyed a study from Psychological Science showing that being superstitious improves performance in a whole string of different tasks.

Now, I'm always a bit conflicted about this kind of psychology research. On my left shoulder is an angel who points out it's risky to extrapolate from laboratory conditions to the real world; that publication bias in this field (the phenomenon where uninteresting findings get left in a desk drawer unpublished forever) is probably considerable; and that it's uncommon to see a genuinely systematic review of the literature on these kinds of topics, bringing together all the conflicting research in one place. I am not Malcolm Gladwell, if that helps to frame the issue more clearly, and I think his books are a bit silly and overstated. On my right shoulder is a devil who thinks this stuff is all really cool and fun. He is typing right now.

The researchers did four miniature experiments. In the first, they took 28 students, more than 80% of whom said they believed in good luck, and randomly assigned them to either a superstition-activated or a control condition. Then they put them on a putting green. To activate a superstition, for half of them, when handing over the ball the experimenter said: "Here is your ball. So far it has turned out to be a lucky ball." For the other half, the experimenter just said: "This is the ball everyone has used so far." Each participant had 10 goes at trying to get a hole in one from a distance of 100cm (39in). And lo, the students playing with a "lucky ball" did significantly better than the others, with a mean score of 6.42, against 4.75 for the others.