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UN: Global food crisis now an emergency (Taken from PhilStar)

So is it? Are we really in a crisis, or at worse, an emergency? Or is this a strategy to transfer attention from past issues?

As far as the Philippines is concerned, I dunno if this whole issue is about having problems on supply of rice or how rice is priced.

I REALLY don't believe that there's a serious food shortage in the Philippines. In all likelihood, this is just the administration's strategy to bury the stink of the ZTE deal.

I wrote this for somewhere else, but x-posting here as its relevant to the thread.

The 2008 Philippine Rice Supply Shortage in bullet points:

Philippine Facts:

- There is a shortage of rice in the Philippines
- The Philippines will import about 2.6 million tones of rice in 2008
- Importing will cost the country a net loss of about $1.3 billion, or 1% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
- The Philippines has nearly doubled its rice output in 1998, but it has not been enough to account for population growth
- The Philippines outpaces Thailand, the world’s biggest rice exporter, by 3.6 million tones to 2.6 million tones per hectare.
- Over the past 20 years, the Philippines has lost half of its irrigated land to urban development (such as golf courses).

What the government is doing:

- Spending money (see above) on importing rice and selling it at local prices
- Cracking down on rice hoarders on grounds of “economic sabotage”, a crime which carries a life sentence
- It has secured deals with other countries to ensure rice imports
- Soldiers are being deployed to guard rice deliveries to poor communities
- The DoA is trying to implement “Bagsakan” centers where farmers can sell their goods directly to consumers, thus eliminating the middle men
- Improving rice yields in the long term through better irrigation, research and the elimination of anti-competitive elements in the rice market


Source: Credit Suisse, the Inquirer and the BBC
1. http://business.inquirer.net/money/topst...dit-Suisse
2. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7324596.stm - a look at how other Asian countries have been affected by rising food prices
3. http://business.inquirer.net/money/colum...ood-crisis


Global Facts:

According to the UN Food and Agriculture Association, rice prices have risen by 70% in the past year.

This was caused by a number of factors, which mainly include: (1) global population growth, (2) the economic “miracles” in China and India, because rich people eat more food. (3) Climate change, due to accelerating desertification of arable land and unpredictable weather which causes both flood and drought, (4) shifting production of food to ethanol in countries like the US – all these factors combined contribute to the rise in global food prices.

For rice, other suspected reasons for the recent increases are rice hoarding due to expectations that the price of rice would increase even more, low stockpiles of the staple, and the industrialization and urbanization of arable land. Importing rice will also become more expensive, as currently only 7% of all rice produced globally is traded in the international market.

Source: BBC
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7341978.stm

Further Reading:

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/cebudai...ction-data -- The government’s rice data is wrong
http://business.inquirer.net/money/colum...me-no-rice -- More on what the Arroyo administration is doing to address shortage fears
http://globalnation.inquirer.net/mindfee..._id=129257 – More information about what is causing the rising prices domestically


My Analysis: If rice prices continue to rise at 70% per year given current trends, then yes it can be considered a crisis. There will be a lot of people in the country that will literally starve to death if they are not granted government assistance. We have to think about where the government will get the money, as it has already operated on a budget deficit over the past few years. About 20-30% of the national budget goes to corruption expenses, so officials will have to learn to either take a smaller cut from deals or risk angry rioters burning down their gilded mansions.

Hypermegasuper rant:

(You have been warned)

Solving the rice problem should've started years back, probably after the Milenyo/Reming combo. IMO, there is no effective solution to this in the short to mid term. Only a long term solution holds. What's sad is that in the effort of modernizing and improving the economy of the Philippines, we seem to have forgotten that the Philippines is rich in natural resources. RICH IN NATURAL RESOURCES. We have been hearing that since we were kids. I dunno if that still holds now.

Again, IMO (sorry if it's another IMO, but I don't have any basis, as this is more of a rant), the govenment should've concentrated in agriculture for past years. Though the risks are high in such an industry, the benefits are equally high. We could have been feeding parts of the world right now, not the other way around.

A lot of the big rich families in this country has some farm somewhere in the country. They probably inherited it from their parents/grandparents, but they continued to maintain since they know that agriculture is a constant source of money. Not just constant, but a good source too. I wondered if the govenment ever wonder of taking that opportunity to improve our economy?

But that line of business is not without its ugly side. Agribusiness is still prone to corruption and the like. That is another issue I dunno how to discuss, as I'm (admittedly) not well informed/read on those problems. My fault.

We could probably blame many things for the course the country took to develop itself into a "developed" country. There are usually culprits, like Politics. But I say we can also blame finance and mathematics, the stock market and other money markets, and the internet. All these are instruments to make instant cash. Especially with the advent of the internet, a simple Forex trader could make $4000 in fifteen minutes. How tempting is that? (Yeap, I did that. But of course I didn't use real cash, I just used a realtime forex trading simulator.)

Basically, it's these kinds of things that made people seek office desk jobs. If the government had improved our agricultre way back, people wouldn't have to flock to cities to make money. They could make money from their backyards. How cool is that? (For one, Manila wouldn't be so crammed, it would have much less traffic, and it wouldn't be one of the most polluted cities in the planet.)

And if there is opportunity to make a good living at different parts of the country, then we would be more united. Imagine, for an example, people from Pangasinan will be trading their harvest with people from Davao. Or other parts of the country trade with out parts. Then we could export to other parts of the world. That'd be awesome.

Although at this point in time, it seems such an idealistic picture. A dream. I dunno if reality still has space for something like that to happen.

Probably, if all those happened, we would only now have a fuel crisis and electricity problem in a lesser scale. I read somewhere that some town/barangay/province (not sure) in the country is self-supportive in terms of food. Yeah, it has enough food for its people since they concentrated on improving their agriculture collectively. And that's quite recent. While everyone's having problems filling their stomachs, these guys can chill and deal with the other problems.

I feel guilty, in a sense, for not doing my part to help alleviate the current situation. As I'm a student of finance and mathematics, a stock market gamer (simulation only, still don't have cash for the real thing), and enjoy the rapid updates on the markets due to the internet, I'm totally contradicting my entire rant. Call it mixed emotions or whatever. Really, I'm confused. It sucks.

If math wasn't so rational, these problems may have not risen. Imagine, at the root of all these problems is math, not money, math. If 1+1 didn't equal to 2 but, let's say, to 1.86 due to humanitarian reasons, I wonder how this world would be? (Ok, this last paragraph is totally absurd and I'm totally contradicting myself.)

maitreya Wrote:If 1+1 didn't equal to 2 but, let's say, to 1.86 due to humanitarian reasons, I wonder how this world would be?

I think we'll have more to go around, instead of barely enough.

I have a friend whose family owns, according to the DENR, the largest private plantation in the country. And let me tell you, the only thing he's worried about now is finishing his Environmental Science degree so he can manage his land well. He's basically assured of having something to eat, and something to do for the rest of his life.

I'm thinking of the exact point where we lost our identity as a country rich in natural resources, and one rich with human resources instead. Maybe at the time of the OFW boom. Or maybe somewhere in 2000 - when I didn't have to read my idealistic grade school araling panlipunan books anymore.

Not much use hyperventilating about what's already happened, is there? XD

You're being too optimistic with your math. Here in the States, we have what we call the Bible Belt, where people have been campaigning not to teach evolution at all in schools ('cuz God created the world in seven days) and are trying to make abortion and divorce illegal.

There's also Israel and Palestine.

There's also Myanmar and Zimbabwe, who's collective policy logic boggles the rest of the entire world.

1+1+politics!! = 0.000000001 or so.